The Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies “Octopus” in Pristina organized an international conference on October 2, 2024, titled “The Impact of Russian Aggression in Ukraine on European Geopolitics.” The event featured prominent experts, diplomats, politicians, and scholars from the region, as well as internationally recognized figures, including Dr. Jennifer Cassidy from Oxford, Dr. Pekka Kallioniemi from Finland, Ukrainian Professor Dr. Ihor Todorov, among others.
Discussions focused on the consequences of the conflict for security and international relations, offering a platform for dialogue and deep analysis of the impacts of Russian aggression, the challenges, and opportunities for Europe in this difficult context.
Following the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Europe has experienced significant changes, including an increased sense of danger and a reevaluation of security strategies. One major consequence has been the intensification of cooperation among European countries in defense and energy, as well as a deepening of relationships with NATO.
The challenges facing Europe today are manifold. One significant issue is energy: European countries are striving to reduce dependence on Russian resources and to find sustainable alternatives. Additionally, Europe is grappling with a refugee crisis and the social tensions that often accompany migration.
In the Balkans, the situation is complicated. Some countries, including Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro, face threats from Serbia, which, like Russia, employs historical narratives to justify territorial claims. These historical reminiscences pose a risk to the region’s stability, inciting ethnic and political tensions.
Serbia appears to be employing strategies similar to those of Russia, challenging the order of stability in the Balkans and undermining efforts for European integration of other countries. This makes the situation even more fragile, heightening fears of a possible escalation of conflict. The “Russian world” and the “Serbian world” seem to represent a shared threat to both Europe and the Balkans today.
In this context, the conference emphasized the importance of Europe strengthening its engagement in the region by supporting democracy and stability in the Balkans to prevent the resurgence of tensions that could jeopardize peace and security across the continent.
The stability of the Balkans and Europe was particularly emphasized in the address by the President of the Assembly of Kosovo, Glauk Konjufca.
Konjufca: “Russia has not given up on the ‘Russian world’ nor Serbia on the ‘Serbian world.’”
In his address to attendees, Konjufca stated that the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine have affected the European continent—its peace, stability, security, politics, and geopolitics—more than any other conflict since World War II.
He noted that the war in Ukraine represents a decisive battle for the democratic order in Europe.
“The President of the Assembly said that due to the lack of a resolute response in 2014 to the Russian invasion of Crimea and the treating of Russia as a despotic partner with which one could cooperate economically, mistakenly assuming that Putin’s pan-Russian ambitions were limited, Europe today is facing a war that concerns not only the fate of Ukraine as a sovereign state and the dignity of Ukrainians as a nation but also a decisive battle for the democratic order in Europe, established after the fall of the ‘Iron Curtain’ in 1989.”
He further stressed that Russia has not abandoned the “Russian world,” nor has Serbia abandoned the “Serbian world.”
Konjufca referred to the recent attack in Banjska as “an identical replica of Russia’s aggressive behavior towards Ukraine.”
“In our regional and Balkan context, the Russian invasion of Ukraine marks the first act of a strategy of destabilization in Europe, where the Balkans, with Serbia as an extension of Russia, would represent the second act of this strategy. Both Russia and Serbia have not given up on this strategy, as neither has given up on their respective ‘worlds.’ The terrorist attack on Kosovo in Banjska last September was an identical replica of Russia’s aggressive behavior toward Ukraine. Serbian paramilitary units, trained by the Serbian army and equipped with military arsenals from the Serbian Ministry of Defense, aimed to annex the north, during which an officer of the Kosovo Police, now a hero, Afrim Bunjaku, was killed in defense of sovereignty, integrity, and security of the Republic of Kosovo,” said Konjufca.
He continued, “The dualism is a well-known weapon of Serbia on the international stage to realize its interests, but it is equally known that Serbia has never been a bastion where the West was defended, as after every war Serbia has always aligned with the East. Thus, in this war in Ukraine in defense of its sovereignty, Serbia is not an ally, but merely benefits by doing business and selling its weapons.”
“Attempts to destabilize Bosnia through Dodik, who promotes every day the secession of the Republic of Srpska and its unification with the ‘Serbian world,’ the refusal to normalize relations with Kosovo through factual recognition that frames the Brussels Agreement, and the attempt to change the Euro-Atlantic orientation of Montenegro are concrete traces of a policy aimed at undermining any progress that the Euro-Western investment has made in our region,” Konjufca concluded.
Former Prime Minister of Albania Pandeli Majko: Serbia’s Attack in Banjska Attempted to Create a Serbian Donbas in Kosovo
Former Prime Minister of Albania Pandeli Majko spoke about the terrorist attack in Banjska that occurred on September 24, 2023, which resulted in the death of police officer Afrim Bunjaku. He stated that this “attack was a serious attempt to create a Serbian Donbas in Kosovo.”
“Currently, the official Serbian policy is using Kosovo to incite national unity, but this has also fueled rising nationalist extremism,” he said.
Majko emphasized that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had repercussions in the Balkans, impacting the region’s politics, economy, and security.
“The war has incited nationalist sentiments in the region, increasing tensions among ethnic groups and affecting political stability.”
Deputy Speaker of the Assembly of Kosovo Enver Hoxhaj
Meanwhile, Deputy Speaker of the Assembly of Kosovo Enver Hoxhaj, in his speech at the conference organized by “OCTOPUS,” highlighted a crucial point regarding the political situation in the Balkans. He noted that Russian aggression in Ukraine has sparked a resurgence of Serbian hegemony, making the region less stable. This is a serious concern, especially for countries that have endured painful experiences in the past.
According to Hoxhaj, the lack of decisive action from the West has allowed Serbia to strengthen its aggressive behavior. This indicates that the approach of appeasement has not yielded positive results; on the contrary, it has contributed to further destabilization of the situation.
Mr. Hoxhaj noted that peace had been a norm in Europe, but the conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East have made war seem inevitable. He linked this situation to the insecurity and unpredictability of the modern age, viewing the war in Ukraine as a factor that has activated Serbia’s hegemonic ambitions in the Balkans. According to him, Serbia continues to challenge the sovereignty of Kosovo and other countries through destabilizing actions.
Hoxhaj criticized the Western policy for favoring the appeasement of Serbia, pointing out that this undermines regional stability. He emphasized that the lack of EU enlargement for the countries of the Balkans has created a security vacuum that allows Russia to exert significant influence in the region. Serbia, in his view, acts as a bastion of Russian influence, promoting anti-Western narratives.
The former minister stressed the need for regional cooperation and strong international support to safeguard sovereignty and stability in the Balkans. He also pointed out that the stalled European integration has caused disillusionment and emigration of youth to Western countries, making greater engagement necessary to support the statehood of Kosovo, as well as the independence of Montenegro and North Macedonia.
Miodrag Vllahoviq, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro: “Russia is Returning to the Strategic Interests of the Serbian People”
Miodrag Vllahoviq, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, emphasized that Serbia is exercising influence in the region through the Serbian Orthodox Church, which acts as an agent of Serbian policies. In a conference, Mr. Vllahoviq discussed the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on European geopolitics, linking it to Serbia’s efforts to renew ties with the Serbian people in the Balkans.
“Russia is returning to the strategic interests of the Serbian people. The entire concept is a state-to-state renewal. The Serbian propaganda that Serbs are endangered is used in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, as well as in Kosovo. This is a historical lie that has persisted since 1912. I am pleased that I was a minister during the time we advocated for the independence of Kosovo,” Vllahoviq stated.
He criticized Serbian propaganda that claims Serbs are endangered, calling it a historical lie that has continued for over a century. He expressed pride in his commitment to advocating for the independence of Kosovo, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the new realities in the region.
University Professor in Belgrade Ivan Videnoviq: “I ask for forgiveness from the people of Kosovo.”
Ivan Videnović, a university professor in Belgrade, has expressed a bold approach regarding the historical and political events related to Kosovo and Ukraine. He apologized on behalf of the Serbs for the Batajnica tragedy, stressing the need to recognize and feel the pain of the victims.
I want to use the opportunity to apologize to the people of Kosovo for all the lives lost during the war in Kosovo, to your fellow citizens, to your families, for all that my country, Serbia, has caused you, especially during the years 1998 and 1998 and 1999.
“I also want to apologize to the Serbs in the north who have been held hostage as human shields for many years by the political elite of Serbia (Vucic) and for using them for personal gain, not for the interests of the Serbian people.
I would also like to apologize to the Serbs in the north who have been held hostage as human shields for many years by the political elite of Serbia (Vučić) and for being exploited for personal gain, rather than for the interests of the Serbian people.
“I do not speak on behalf of the people of Serbia, but I can speak on behalf of the 5,000 people who have voted for the policies I represent here since 2023. They voted for our party despite Serbia’s propaganda and pressure from Vučić. In spite of this, they chose to vote for us.
“Therefore, I can apologize on their behalf for Serbia’s crimes against Albanians, and I am confident that they will join me in placing flowers on the graves of the Albanians killed at the Serbian military base in Batajnica, where 750 bodies of Albanians were found. We want to show our respect for them. I know that this number may not seem very large, but I believe that this number will grow over time,” he emphasized.
Videnović drew parallels between the Russian aggression in Ukraine and that of Milošević in the former Yugoslavia, suggesting that both situations share similar experiences and mechanisms.
His criticisms of current developments in Serbia, such as the resurgence of nationalist policies and support for Russian aggression, reflect a deep concern for the direction the country is taking. He also highlighted the influence of a radical party in shaping Serbian politics, alluding to the governance of Aleksandar Vučić.
Dr. Gurakuq Kuçi: Russia’s Strategy—Destabilization of the Balkans to Undermine NATO and the EU
“Russia’s hybrid war in the Balkans includes both direct and indirect tactics. These tactics involve manipulation of the media, cyber attacks, and the use of representative actors such as Serbia, Republika Srpska, and the Serbian Orthodox Church,” stated Dr. Gurakuq Kuçi while presenting his study, “Russian Hybrid War in the Western Balkans,” at the conference organized by “Octopus.”
“Historically, Russia’s involvement in the Balkans dates back to Tsarist times (Khomyakov for Slavophile 1839 and Franjo Zah for “Slavic living space”, with a vision of uniting Slavic peoples under Russian leadership. Than also Serbia with Nacertanje by Ilia Garasanin. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in the region remain strong. I thing we know the Dugi’s plan for the Eur-Asia plans, the multipolarity of the world, Moscow- Pekin coalition (today BRICS, etc.) In fact, President Vladimir Putin has described the dissolution of the Soviet Union as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” indicating his intent to restore Russian influence, particularly in regions like the Balkans and Ukraine”, stressed Dr. Kuçi focusing on the historical background of these relationships and alliances.
Russia’s hybrid warfare in the Western Balkans is highly effective because it exploits the region’s vulnerabilities—ethnic divisions, weak political institutions, and cultural ties to Russia. Countering this influence requires a coordinated Western response that includes strengthening democratic institutions, cybersecurity, and independent media.
If the Western Balkans continues to be destabilized, this will not only affect regional security, but will also have wider implications for global stability, concludes his statement at this conference Mr.Kuçi
Professor from Oxford: The Possibility of Serbia Invading Kosovo Cannot Be Ruled Out
Professor Jennifer Cassidy from the University of Oxford has raised serious concerns about stability in the Balkans, suggesting that the possibility of a Serbian invasion of Kosovo cannot be excluded. During a conference organized by the “Octopus” Institute, she emphasized that Serbia’s close ties with Russia make this scenario more likely.
“In my personal and professional opinion, with a neighbor that has such close ties to Russia, I do not think we can rule out any options. It would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of an invasion, whether through the infiltration of secret forces or plans for annexation,” she stated during the conference.
Cassidy highlighted the importance of maintaining strong ties between Kosovo and other Balkan countries with the European Union, suggesting that this is a way to improve stability and security in the region.
Conclusion of the OCTOPUS Institute Conference: Serbia as a Destabilizing Factor in the Western Balkans
The director of the OCTOPUS Institute, Mr. Agim Musliu, concluded the conference by emphasizing that Serbia continues to play a destabilizing role in the Western Balkans. He pointed out that Serbia’s territorial ambitions in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Montenegro represent a serious threat to peace and regional security. Musliu underscored the need for a stronger and coordinated approach from the international community to address these challenges and ensure stability in the region.
Conclusions:
Firstly, the war in Ukraine has underscored the urgency for NATO and the EU to take swift and concrete measures to strengthen unity in the field of security and defense.
“This includes protecting geopolitical borders from external influences, whether through conventional warfare, as is the case in Ukraine, or through unconventional methods that threaten various parts of Europe.”
The second conclusion is that Russian aggression has reinforced the use of hybrid strategies, including interference in elections in democratic countries.
“Russian aggression has reinforced the use of hybrid strategies, including interference in electoral processes in democratic countries, propaganda, and the spread of disinformation. These actions have created a destabilizing climate that requires a coordinated response from Western and pro-Western countries, strengthening capacities to protect sovereignty, national security, and the maintenance of peace.”
The third conclusion is that “Russia not only uses states as proxies to achieve its strategic objectives but also supports non-state actors that pose increased threats to international security. These actors represent a growing challenge and require a unified and decisive approach from the international community to be halted through strong and effective measures.”
The fourth conclusion is that recent events have highlighted the necessity to devise and implement long-term security strategies.
“Recent events have emphasized the necessity to devise and implement long-term security strategies, including economic, military, and technological support for countries facing the risk of destabilization from Russia and its allies. Such a comprehensive response is essential to maintain stability and territorial integrity in Europe.”
Moreover, Kosovo and the countries in the region that wish to preserve their European perspective must engage in maintaining and strengthening democracy and sovereignty.
“Kosovo and the countries in the region that want to maintain their European perspective must engage in preserving and strengthening democracy and sovereignty, where Western countries also have an obligation, given their own security, to assist this geopolitical generation in the Balkans and to end the influence of Russia and its proxies.”
The final conclusion is that Serbia continues to play a destabilizing role in the Balkans and that the international community must reassess its approach to Vučić’s regime.
“Serbia continues to play a destabilizing role in the Balkans, with its ongoing territorial ambitions in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina posing a serious threat to peace and regional security. Under President Vučić’s leadership, Serbia’s authoritarian tendencies have strengthened, along with its support for nationalist rhetoric and hybrid warfare tactics. This trajectory undermines democratic values and destabilizes neighboring countries, while also exacerbating tensions with the international community.
Given this reality, the international community must reassess its approach to Vučić’s regime. A firmer stance is necessary—one that holds Serbia accountable for its actions and pressures it to abandon its revisionist agenda. Without a decisive and unified international response, Serbia’s aggressive posture will continue to fuel destabilization in the Balkans, threatening peace and long-term development in the region.”
These conclusions highlight a fraught reality for security in Europe, underscoring that destabilization in Kosovo and the region has significant implications for the entire continent. The need for strong and coordinated cooperation among European countries is essential to address present threats, such as Russian aggression and hybrid strategies.
Strengthening unity in the field of security, supporting developing democracies, and maintaining territorial integrity are issues that require collective commitment. Western states must offer support to countries facing pressure from external actors and work together to create a safer and more stable environment for all European citizens. Only through a unified approach can long-term stability be achieved in the region and beyond.
© 2024 Argumentum
