What now is the key concern worldwide are a “Covid-19-free world” and its social, economic, and financial repercussions, particularly their impact on the life of people. Likewise the following question is high on the agenda: will there be a re-design of the global economic order in a post coronavirus era?
By Genc Mlloja
Senior Diplomatic Editor
In the early hours of March 9 this year the news was broken out officially that Albania registered the first person infected with COVID – 19, who was nicknamed as ‘patient zero’. It came out they father and son with coronavirus Italian connection.
In a way people were aware of what was coming and its impact because Italy was one of the clearest examples what was in stock for the country. But when you have the ‘hidden enemy’ at home it is different the more so as Albania was struggling with the impact of the strong earthquake of November 26 of the last year.
“The virus looks at where you are. It doesn’t matter what nationality you are,” these few words sounded like a precautionary alarm raised so wisely by the UN’s envoy in Tirana, William Brian in the early days of the outbreak of the pandemic cautioning Albanians to be more sensible and human, zero political fight and instead of it a concerted struggle to check Covid-19 now.
But beyond Albania’s borders the global crisis caused by the Covid-19 crisis has shown that even the strongest countries were very vulnerable, sometimes more than other less developed countries in face of the deadly virus. Despite the disastrous consequences of the pandemic on the economies of the United States, Great Britain, France, Canada, Italy, as well as other major countries, adequate response models that could possibly turn around the current situation regarding the depressed economies but also the normal social life, have still not been devised.
In the area of the Western Balkans, all the countries were bracing to respond to the challenges associated with the pandemic, be they medical, economic or political, in the most adequate way. It should be recorded that the political life went on and a highlight was the opening of the accession talks of Albania and North Macedonia with the European Union. In addition Albania’s political scene got heated up following the demolition of the National Theater and the pandemic restrictions did not ‘frighten’ protesters to oppose such an act. Its echo goes on. On the other hand the electoral reform has put majority and opposition face to face with internationals encouraging an electoral deal as soon as possible.
Nevertheless, what now prevails as key concern worldwide is a “Covid-19-free world” and its social, economic, and financial repercussions, particularly their impact on the life of people. Likewise the following question is high on the agenda: will there be a re-design of the global economic order in a post coronavirus era?
In many interviews I have had with senior politicians, ambassadors accredited in Tirana, economic and political researchers during the 12-week lockdown they considered the above issues crucial questions being extremely difficult to be predicted depending on various unknowns such as the length of the current phase of the pandemic, whether governments and health systems will keep the effects of the crisis in check despite the gradual loosening of the strict measures or whether the world will enter unequally severe new round of the pandemic in coming autumn.
The Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic-Radman considered important to underline on April 27, 2020 that while all the countries are faced with the unprecedented challenges of fighting the coronavirus, the Western Balkans can count on the EU solidarity and support. “EU support, including financial, is helping to address the immediate needs in the health sector, such as: support in getting the necessary medical equipment, improving societal resilience, and helping partners mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic, primarily by redirecting funds to ensure liquidity. It is an important message that demonstrates the EU’s strong support and solidarity with the region,” said Mr. Radman top diplomat of Croatia, which has the EU Presidency.
Professor of Economics Marek Belka, a former Prime Minister of Poland, was of the opinion on April 24, 2020 that the world, including the big powers, had been caught unprepared. “Many countries are still “licking wounds” from the financial crisis of 2008. So the spectrum of instruments that can be used is limited, for example the monetary stimulus.” According to him, Poland is no exception. “However we have entered the crisis in relatively good shape: strong growth, very low unemployment and low public debt. The government’s reaction was similar to most other countries. Social safety net for the people losing jobs and liquidity assistance for businesses in trouble are among the elements of the proposed package. The positive effects of the proposed package will depend on the capability to implement it in a timely manner. So this will be a test for the overall efficiency of the state and the society. In the meantime, we in Poland cannot avoid a severe recession. The longer the lockdown of the economy, the more difficult it will be to restart the economy. Three months hibernation is still manageable. Six months would be a major disaster,” he noted.
President of European Movement in Serbia (EMS Jelica Minic thought that, unfortunately, the first reactions all over the world were very selfish. “The people in our region (Western Balkans) were deeply disappointed with the lack of solidarity in the EU, among its Member States and towards its close neighborhood,” she said on April 15, 2020.
With regard to bilateral assistance in the region she said it is not visible. “The exception is that after collecting Chinese and Russian assistance in medical goods Serbia delivered some assistance to the neighborhood on the ethnic basis – to Republika Srpska in BiH and to Serbs in Kosovo. Symbolic assistance offered to Montenegro was not accepted. In general, the assistance during coronavirus crisis besides humanitarian became an increasingly political tool.”
Dr. Ioannis Armakolas, who is Assistant Professor at University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki and Senior Research Fellow at Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), focused on Europe to narrow down a bit the scope of the question. “At the economic front it is clear that this will be a very difficult year for European economies, as it will be for most of the world. We already see estimates that the weakest of the Eurozone economies are highly likely to re-enter a crisis mode. This is of course very bad news for these countries and the Eurozone as a whole as the previous economic crisis not only seriously affected the lives and wellbeing of millions of people, but also shook the foundations of the European Union and brought about an unprecedented political crisis,” he said on May 5, 2020.
According to him, the ongoing fierce battle at the European level for the most appropriate political and institutional response, and of course the search for the suitable economic instruments and stimuli, is also a derivative of the traumatic experience of the 2010s and the lessons learned (or not-learned) at both the national and European level. “Needless to say, if EU member states fail to agree on suitable responses and measures and the weakest of the European economies are left to feel inadequately supported, this will be one more serious blow to pro-European sentiment in many member states. Solidarity, both as political and economic imperative, but also as a popular sentiment felt by European peoples, is a key pillar of European integration.”
Speaking of international affairs Dr. Armakolas thought that the crisis seems to have exacerbated changes in the way that the global order is structured. “It is probably the first international crisis in decades in which the US seems to refuse to play its role as a global leader. The US is certainly run by the most isolationist president in many decades, one who refuses to allow the world’s wealthiest and most powerful country to lead the effort in the fight against the pandemic. In fact, Washington has turned against the very international institutions, primarily the World Health Organization, that itself had helped to set up and which are crucial for the coordination in the global response to the crisis. The EU, disunited and badly hit by the health emergency, also punches below its weight. China seems willing to take advantage of the crisis to promote its image as the new international hegemon, and that’s why we see this coronavirus PR campaign in many countries. But we should not forget that China itself, and the political culture of this authoritarian superpower, is responsible for the slow response which magnified the problem. All in all, the world is battling against an unprecedented –in recent times- global health crisis, but with limited global governance and international coordination effectively curtailed,” said the Greek Professor.
Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science and International Relations of Istanbul Sehir University Huseyin Alptekin said that all the past plagues have created opportunities for the reshaping of the global and domestic structures. “In the case of the Covid-19, there seems to be two opposing ways: the first is further closure of nation states at the expense of the international organizations with rising nationalism and populism, and the second is increasing level international cooperation and the creation of a global preventive healthcare regime. Time will show which direction the world will take but for today, the former direction seems to be more probable,” he said on April 11, 2020.
Answering a question if the post coronavirus ‘era’ could generate a redesign of the world economic order, the Israeli Ambassador to Tirana, Noah Gal Gendler had the following answer: ”I have no doubt that the world economic system will regenerate itself in relatively short period but some of the people will be there to suffer the consequences. In order to prevent another occurrence in the near future we must gear towards a new world order vis a vis protecting the environment, efficiently planning the economy and moderating lifestyle preferences: diet, habits, tourism (to mention a few).”
The Ambassador of Brazil to Albania, Francisco Carvalho Chagas said on Apri 7, 2020 that ‘there will be a post-coronavirus world. “Many lessons will be learned and priorities will be reviewed. However, efforts to overcome the effects of the pandemic shall have to bear in mind the needs of the most vulnerable sectors of society. Low-income families, self-employed workers and those in service sectors whose reactivation may take longer will require special attention,” he said
In his comment on the lack of cooperation of the WB countries during the pandemic time Professor Ljubomir Kekenovski, PhD, Faculty of Economics within the State University of “St. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje said he liked to add that “this is a unique social process, when we egoistically turned to our countries and even dipper to our cities, neighborhood, locked down into our apartments with our families, similar to those bunkers in the time of Enver Hoxha. Actually we behave as Vladimir and Estragon in the Theater of the Absurd of Samuel Beckett, who wait for the Godot thorn apart between the illusion and reality.
In a reference to EU’s behavior he said: “One of the most evident facts in this crisis is that the EU has shown once more that in spite the numerous laws and regulations, it does not have a unique set of measures, instruments and policies for conducting in this type of crisis.”
On a re-design of the global economic order he said: “This is the beginning of the end of the neoliberal world and order, as we know it by now. When we would all look into our backyards and our interest, I would say that making one new Marshall Plan would be a salvation for the EU and the region. But does Europe have strength for that? I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Damaged by the Brexit, wounded by the sovereignist calls for the return of the concept of the national states, disoriented from the propositions of Europe in several speeds, have strongly undermined the European idea. Even more, today on the European horizon, I don’t see any visionaries of the caliber of Robert Shuman, Jean Monnet, statesman as Adenauer and De Gaul. However, I think that the new age and the actual increasing challenges will produce men with that kind of personality. Let’s not forget that first and foremost Europe is a peace project, and one great idea based on the economic interest of the citizens of Europe. But if one virus shoots down the European idea than we were never worthy of it, or it was never worthy of existing.
Albanian Croatian MP Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj said on April 1, 2020 the European Union has assisted Croatia even during the accession negotiations, and I hope that it will help Albania, too. “Hoping that this pandemic will not last more than three months, I am convinced that the economic consequences will be severe and that it will take at least four years to revitalize the economy. On the other hand, I am also certain that the global economic order will be redesigned, but how and in what way it remains to be seen and time will show the implications at a regional and worldwide scale,” she said.
“The Covid-19 pandemic will certainly have significant negative effects on a small open economy like Albania for this year. These are hard to quantify at the moment, although it is already clear that tourism and light manufacturing will be severely hit. Lower remittances may also impact consumption and through that the retail sector. If the pandemic can be contained relatively quickly, we can however expect a fast recovery,” said EBRD’s Head of Albania Matteo Colangeli on March 30, 2020. “If the pandemic can be contained relatively quickly, we can however expect a fast recovery. A long lasting impact of the current crisis may be a shortening of global supply chains with Italian and other European companies looking to find suppliers closer to home. This could bring opportunities for Albania. In that respect, the opening of EU accession negotiations should certainly help in building investor confidence, especially if coupled with necessary institutional reforms focusing on the business climate.”
Dr. Long Jing, Deputy Director of Center for European Studies at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, dwelt on many issues related to the fight against novel coronavirus, its impact on many aspects of life in China, particularly on economy, and rising pandemic worldwide with its expected implications on the global economic order on March 23, 2020.
She found it hard to predict the implications of the epidemic on China’s economy but, however, she had the following comment: “Since the epidemic is very hopefully to be kept in check within the first quarter, its impact on China’s economy might be short-term and controllable for the whole year. However, currently, the world economy has severely been damaged by the worldwide spread of the pandemic.”
The Chinese researcher thought that there might be two scenarios for the future global economic picture of the world. According to her one scenario is that countries are becoming more isolated, not only economically, but also in terms of people-to-people exchange, and the other is that, being aware of the necessity of joint efforts against global crisis, multilateral cooperation and mutual understanding will increase. “In order to make the second scenario come to reality, China, as the second largest economy in the world, will definitely make its own contribution,” said Ms. Long Jing of Center for European Studies at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies in the following interview:
“The preventive measures taken by the Government of Albania have been taken early in the beginning of the spread of the outbreak in the country, the moment when these measures have maximum effectivity,” the World Health Organization Representative and Head of Country Office in Tirana, Dr. Raul Gonzalez Montero said on March 20, 2020. “Fear is a human feeling and we need to not feel guilty about that. What we need to do is to impede fear to make us take the wrong decisions. Information and solidarity are the best medicines to fight fear. It is a good weapon to share our concerns with those who we love and respect in our social and family circles. It is essential to trust in our health authorities,” said Dr. Montero.
© Argumentum
