Realpolitik “ flash” No 8
16 - 30 APRIL 2021
EXCLUSIVELY at ARGUMENTUM, the renowned diplomat and analist “ dots the i’s and crosses the “ t’s” on 7 major events in only 1.000 words Dr. Jorgji KOTE
1. Internationals recognize 25 April! Albeit the negative occurences and urging their investigation, the international community is recognizing the elections held on 25 April. It is asking the same from the opposition and its cooperation for the country’s progress. Meanwhile, the Continuity of the winning Socialist Party should make changes everywhere and in foreign policy - the opening of EU accession negotiations, strengthening relations with Kosovo, a new approach on regional cooperation, filing the Ionnian Sea dossier to the Hague and others to mention only some of the major diplomatic challenges ahead. As to the failed “Change”, the Democratic Party should start it from inside, first by acknowledging the result and conceding its loss.
2. America forward! This is how President Biden qualified USA on 29 April in the US Congress during his first 100 days away from « America first » which with Trump was ending the last. 100 days full of giant projects and funding against COVID - 19, 1,8 trillion dollars for families, 2,3 trillion for employment/investments and others. Abroad, the return to international organizations, confirming the Euro-Atlantic partnership, democracy and the rule of law, deter and dialogue with China & Russia and others. It bodes well for USA and the world!
3. Climate unites! This was most recently proved by the virtual Climate Summit on 22- 23 April. 41 heads of state/governments replied to President Biden’s invitation, including Putin and Xi Jinping. The Summit confirmed the US “comeback” to the Paris Climate Treaty and to WHO. Thus, the USA intend to ressume the world leadership with this planetary issue after 4 lost years. This Summit showed that besides terrorism, pandemics, environmental protection, crime and other topics, Climate is the major Commonality among states, despite their geopolitical and ideological differences. Hence, although Biden called Putin as “ assassin” and said more or less that Xi Jinping has no democratic bone in his body, he invited both to this Summit. Because climate is a tremendous challenge that cannot be met alone even by the largest and most powerful state on the earth!
4. No to “Pandora Box”! The fuss on two non- paper documents allegedly of slovenian and franco-german origin shook the whole political and diplomatic community in the region and beyond. Actually, the revision of regional borders was rejected 20 years ago in the framework of the new strategies enacted by the USA/EU and finally last year. As to failures in their implementation, they cannot be a cause to review and even worse to end them; instead, they should be updated within the current status quo. Otherwise, as it is randomly said “the Pandora Box” maybe opened in the region and beyond. In fact, such non - papers are launched to “measure the pulse”, to “stir the “diplomatic waters” in the sensitive region and set in motion the politics. Last but not the least, they remind it to deal seriously with this immense challenge. The Euro - Atlantic community said “NO” to these non-papers.
5. “Fault “ in Tirana! It was Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti who made such “ fault” by casting his ballot in Tirana on 25 April. Both his own folks and Europe “ have pulled his ear” for that. Despite all, this exagerated act is not permissible to him as PM; likewise, the branch of his Party “ Vetwvendosja” in Tirana is unjustifiable. Imagine that the same would appear in Pristina! This “ expansionism” and opposition to Tirana is unnecessary. There aree enough troubles and worries for him in Brussels for the visas, the dialogue with Belgrade and so on. Above all, there are plenty of areas where mutual solidarity and support can be displayed between Pristina and Tirana; but not political rivalry, race and competition! For only Vuçiç would be their winner.
6. Ottoman “ Genocide” On 24 April, Biden became the first US President to consider GENOCIDE the extermination of 1,5 million armenians during 1915 - 1917 by the Ottoman army. An welcomed, bold and necessary step. Because while mentioning Rwanda and recently criticizing China for the Uigurs, one cannot keep silence for this tragic history of 106 years ago! Although, it would be easier for Turkey to close this chapter, which it considers “ massacre” than to constantly provoke odds and problems with many countries that consider the same “ Genocide”or are expected to do so. Likewise, given its possible effects in their strategic partner relations, this is a bold decision. Especially after the divergences among Turkey, USA and EU following the turkish purchase of Russian S - 400 missiles and its impartiality in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The USA are showing caution so that Turkey would not take side with Russia or leave NATO; this would seriously damage its reliability as well as its political and military capacities. Therefore, Biden is referring to genocide committed by ottomans, although this is far from pacifying Turkey. Nevertheless, there is much hope that Turkey’s anger would calm down during the meeting Biden - Erdogan in the NATO Summit in Brussels this June.
7. Fiasco in Afganistan! Such was the decision to withdraw NATO military troops from Afghanistan 20 years after their deployment there, following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. This is also the deadline for this withdraw starting now. Despite words and rhetorics, the Allied Forces failed to meet the major objectives of this longest international intervention. There is no peace, stability, and good governance; instead there is growing crime, drug and corruption there; the worst is the threat by Talibans ready for new adventures now that the ground will be free. The main cause behind this fiasco is that it was not politics ruling over the army but the opposite. It was wrongly thought that thanks to the immense unity among allied forces, the murder of Bin Laden and other IS leaders, the Talibans would surrender but this was not the case. Not to mention the huge expenses which could be used for health, environment, education and other areas. Nonetheless, this withdraw is the least worse alternative. Most importantly, it is a lesson for the future, not to make such decisions without first giving an answer to the strategic question “ what comes next”?